San Francisco
Seven square miles, most of it already built.
San Francisco: photography pending
Supply Scorecard
How San Francisco measures up
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| M1 Permits per 1,000 residents | pending |
| M2 Median permit approval time | pending |
| M3 Rental vacancy rate | pending |
| M4 Median rent-to-income ratio | pending |
| M5 Share of land zoned single-family | pending |
Figures are provisional pending source verification against the Census Building Permits Survey, HUD, FRED, and municipal planning data.
Constraint Diagnosis
Report in research. San Francisco’s geography, a 47-square-mile peninsula largely built out under a low-rise form since the postwar period, sets a hard ceiling on incremental supply that no amount of entitlement reform alone resolves.
Sources
Where these numbers come from
Every input behind this report's pro forma, and whether it's been checked against a real source yet.
| Input | Value | Source | Year | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Land cost | $4,700,000 | PENDING | N/A | N/A |
| Hard cost per unit | $315,000 | PENDING | N/A | N/A |
| Soft costs | 22.0% | PENDING | N/A | N/A |
| Permit timeline | 15 mo | PENDING | N/A | N/A |
| Construction timeline | 18 mo | PENDING | N/A | N/A |
| Construction loan rate | 8.75% | PENDING | N/A | N/A |
| Monthly rent per unit | $3,250 | PENDING | N/A | N/A |
| Vacancy & credit loss | 5.0% | PENDING | N/A | N/A |
| Operating expense ratio | 36.0% | PENDING | N/A | N/A |
| Exit cap rate | 4.50% | PENDING | N/A | N/A |
| Required spread over exit cap (drives required return = exit cap + spread) | 1.25% | Industry convention for ground-up multifamily; developers in 2026 generally require 6%+ development yield with a minimum 125-150bps spread over exit cap. Practitioner range 125-175bps, with urban-core deals occasionally below 100bps. CBRE notes the historical premium was approximately 200bps and has compressed. This model uses the low end of that range (125bps), matching the developer_spread input in R-01's sourced Washington, D.C. analysis. See also: https://dancap.ca/2025-outlook-real-estate/ | 2026 | View source |