The Setback
R-06 Upcoming
Capital Vintage pending · Updated pending

Miami

Plenty of capital. Almost none of it chasing workforce housing.

Miami: photography pending

Supply Scorecard

How Miami measures up

Supply scorecard: five-metric method
Metric Value
M1 Permits per 1,000 residents pending
M2 Median permit approval time pending
M3 Rental vacancy rate pending
M4 Median rent-to-income ratio pending
M5 Share of land zoned single-family pending

Figures are provisional pending source verification against the Census Building Permits Survey, HUD, FRED, and municipal planning data.

Constraint Diagnosis

Report in research. Miami has no shortage of capital willing to build; it has a shortage of capital willing to build anything but the highest rent tier the market will bear, leaving the workforce and middle-income segment structurally underfunded relative to demand.

Sources

Where these numbers come from

Every input behind this report's pro forma, and whether it's been checked against a real source yet.

Pro forma input sources for Miami
Input Value Source Year Link
Land cost $2,300,000 PENDING N/A N/A
Hard cost per unit $245,000 PENDING N/A N/A
Soft costs 19.0% PENDING N/A N/A
Permit timeline 7 mo PENDING N/A N/A
Construction timeline 18 mo PENDING N/A N/A
Construction loan rate 8.25% PENDING N/A N/A
Monthly rent per unit $1,950 PENDING N/A N/A
Vacancy & credit loss 5.0% PENDING N/A N/A
Operating expense ratio 39.0% PENDING N/A N/A
Exit cap rate 5.50% PENDING N/A N/A
Required spread over exit cap (drives required return = exit cap + spread) 1.25% Industry convention for ground-up multifamily; developers in 2026 generally require 6%+ development yield with a minimum 125-150bps spread over exit cap. Practitioner range 125-175bps, with urban-core deals occasionally below 100bps. CBRE notes the historical premium was approximately 200bps and has compressed. This model uses the low end of that range (125bps), matching the developer_spread input in R-01's sourced Washington, D.C. analysis. See also: https://dancap.ca/2025-outlook-real-estate/ 2026 View source